Variación de la distribución geográfica potencial del invasor Lithobates catesbeianus (Ranidae) en Ecuador frente al cambio climático

Yarelys Ferrer-Sánchez; Anthony Michael Mendoza-Loor; Alexis Herminio Plasencia-Vázquez; María del Cielo Macías-Cusme; Kevin Fernando Loor-Lucero; Rossana Lourdes  Canales-Briones; Bryan Patricio Calle-Cedeño

doi:10.56124/yaku.v7i13.002

Authors

Yarelys Ferrer-Sánchez Carrera Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo. Ecuador
Anthony Michael Mendoza-Loor Carrera Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo. Ecuador
Alexis Herminio Plasencia-Vázquez Centro de Investigaciones Históricas y Sociales, Universidad Autónoma de Campeche. México
María del Cielo Macías-Cusme Carrera Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo. Ecuador
Kevin Fernando Loor-Lucero Carrera Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo. Ecuador
Rossana Lourdes Canales-Briones Carrera Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo. Ecuador
Bryan Patricio Calle-Cedeño Carrera Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo. Ecuador

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56124/yaku.v7i13.002

Keywords:

global warming, Kuenm, invasive alien species, bullfrog, simulation model

Abstract

Ecuador, with its wide range of climates and biodiversity, faces the challenge of the expansion of invasive species such as Lithobates catesbeianus, which may benefit from future climate variations. This study modeled the potential distribution of L. catesbeianus in Ecuador under climate change scenarios using international baseline records and scientific literature. Bioclimatic variables relevant to the species were downloaded and 1581 candidate models were constructed with the KUENM package and Maximum Entropy algorithm in R. The species prevailed mainly in the coastal region, especially in Guayas, Los Ríos, Manabí, Santa Elena and Esmeraldas, and in the eastern part in Napo, Morona Santiago and Zamora Chinchipe, the latter being especially favorable for its habitat. Climate favorability decreased in the Sierra. In the moderate scenario (SSP 2 4.5), tolerable changes are expected in areas where the bullfrog is already present. Ecuador's climatic diversity could even favor its expansion. However, in the extreme scenario (SSP 5 8.5), a considerable loss of areas with favorable climatic conditions is expected, but the species could still maintain populations, especially within protected areas. The range of expansion for the bullfrog's distribution is expected to increase in areas such as the Cayambe Coca Ecological Reserve, Cotacachi Cayapas, Churute Mangroves and Sangay and Llanganates National Parks. This will result in a higher prevalence of the species in the SNAP but will also cause the loss of biodiversity and local fauna.

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