Remesas y recaudación tributaria como factores explicativos del VAB: provincia de Manabí

Remittances and taxes as explanatory factors of GVA: province of Manabí

Abstract

The main objective of this article is to investigate how remittances and tax collection influence the generation of VAB in the province of Manabí. To do this, a quantitative research methodology is used, using a statistical-descriptive approach and causal analysis through a multiple linear regression econometric model based on Stock and Watson (2012). The statistical data used comes from the Regional National Accounts of the Central Bank of Ecuador and the Internal Revenue System (SRI) on a timeline from 2007 to 2022. The results reveal that the VAB in the Manabí province has had a constant growth phase. between 2007 and 2017 and a second phase of decrease until 2022; Furthermore, there is concentration of the productive structure in a few cantons and branches of activity. Regarding the econometric result, changes in remittances have a negative effect on VAB and tax collection generates a positive effect on its evolution. The explanatory power of the model indicates a coefficient of determination R2 of 76.6%, complying with the assumptions of correct specification, normality in the residuals, homoscedasticity and multicollinearity.