Montecristi 2050: Prospective scenarios for sustainable development

Abstract

The research is premised on the use of the territorial foresight method to build alternative development scenarios for the Montecristi canton for 2050, based on the principles of sustainability, equity, and resilience. The goal is to describe development paths that are possible for the territories urban, environmental, economic, and social development that are all in agreement with the Bicentennial plan vision and Sustainable Development Goals. This scientific approach is based on structural system analysis, the construction of scenarios, and formulating strategic objectives based on the territorial diagnosis and analysis of six systems: physical-environmental, human settlement, socio-cultural, economic, political-institutional, and risk management. The outcomes point to three scenarios: optimistic, in which Montecristi can be considered a “Garden City of Good Living,” sustainable, participatory, and resilient; tendential, with limited growth forecasts that depend on Manta, with challenges in water management and urban planning; and pessimistic, which denotes environmental deterioration, institutional crisis, and cultural dispossession. The conclusion is that Montecristi's future growth will depend on its ability to develop participatory planning, territorial governance, environmental management, and productive innovation—guides to guarantee a balanced and sustainable growth model in the context of climate change and social inequities.